Crude Oil to Average $96 a Barrel for 2014

Crude Oil

crude_oil

Crude Oil has been reasonably stable since the USA government political crusade started more than a week ago.

Last week the commodity surge after the EIA reported that:

  • U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 146 thousand barrels per day lower than the previous week’s average.
  • Gasoline production fell from the previous week.
  • Imports averaged about 8.4 million barrels per day last week, up by 438 thousand barrels per day from the previous week but lower compared to previous year.
  • U.S. commercial Crude Oil inventories increased 5.5 million barrels from the previous week. U.S. crude oil inventories are toward the upper range for this time of year.

With lower production and higher inventories the market last week managed to push the commodity higher. Basically against gravity. But Crude Oil prices have been trading slightly lower during the week as it has been expected.

crude oil

Crude Oil is technically in bearish territory. Indicators are signalling further downside pressure and as long as the U.S government shutdown continues the more pressure will built up on the commodity (Crude Oil).

As it stands, any break below the $100 mark could push Crude Oil’s price towards the $98-$95 level. Supposing of course; that the U.S government does not default by 17 October. Otherwise could it get worse.

Currently the commodity has fallen more than 100 points to $102.50 which is in line with the EIA forecast. The EIA also expect Crude Oil prices to average around $96 a barrel next year and surely isn’t taken into account the current possible outcomes of the political standoff in Washington.

Today’s EIA report highlights are:

  • U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 14.9 million barrels per day during the
    week ending October 4, 2013, 555 thousand barrels per day lower than the previous
    week’s average
  • U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 8.0 million barrels per day last week, down by 320
    thousand barrels per day from the previous week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased 6.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 370.5 million barrels, inventories remain above the upper range for this time of year.

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